Welcome to “The Future Laboratory”

The future laboratory explores the future. We do not predict the future - there is a huge difference. Nobody can predict the future, but humankind can explore the future by looking at uncertainties, it's likely range of behaviour and combining them in plausible, consistent outcomes in a scientific and rational method.

We assist enterprise to engineer flexible strategies with uncertainty in mind. When thinking about the future, uncertainty and unpredictability are the main characteristics. Most enterprises see it as a risk (risk = uncertainty with a negative threat to the enterprise objectives). But uncertainty also creates exciting opportunities or the potential to hedge against risks. In future laboratory language we call it “optionality” – the uncertain future provides us with options which we can exercise as we think about it during the time of the capital investment decision, and we exercise it as the future uncertainty resolves over time. 

Current tools employed by enterprise ignore risk and optionality.  The farm is bet on a most probable “forecast” and projects are evaluated and chosen on a single view of the future. Discounted Cash Flow analysis (DCF) is the prime example of this.  We cannot predict the future, but we can employ several tools to create feasible, consistent and equally likely outcomes.   

The tools we employ are: 

• Scenario analysis 
• Real Option Valuation (ROV)
• Business Intelligence
• Stochastic Modelling
• Future Trends
• Econometric Modelling
• Market Research